Scenarios scope out three potential paths forward, with snapshots of industry status in select provinces
BTY has modelled three scenarios – Optimistic Outlook, Pessimistic Outlook, and a Likely Outlook – to help map out potential paths forward for the industry. All are linked to the performance of the larger economy and recognize that recovery will be uneven across provinces.
Prepared by a cross-Canada team of BTY experts, the briefing includes survey data from local contractors, developers and lenders.
The three top takeaways (out of 10 offered in the Briefing Note) are:
1. The greater the impact of COVID-19 on labour availability, productivity and supply chain reliability in the short term, the more prices are projected to go up.
2. As the pandemic’s immediate impact subsides, macro-economic factors will play a more dominant role and influence investment decisions.
3. The extent and availability of testing will drive workforce confidence in site safety in the short term. “Workarounds” in response to social distancing will help counter losses it causes to productivity.
The scenarios were developed by integrating an analysis of past market performance, market trends during crisis times, real-time data of current projects, specific impacts of COVID-19, and modelling of impacts on construction cost escalation under scenarios of varying economic outlooks.