Shift comes at end of firm’s 40th year and launch of 15th annual market intelligence report. High escalation forecast for ON, BC and QC; low to moderate in the Prairies and Atlantic provinces.
(December 19, Toronto) – BTY is pleased to announce that Toby Mallinder will become the firm’s new Managing Director as long-serving Joe Rekab transitions to the role of Chairman, and Gord Smith takes on the role of Director of Operations. All three have played key leadership roles in BTY’s expansion across Canada, USA, Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia.
The transition comes at the end of the firm’s 40th-anniversary year and the launch of BTY’s 15th annual Market Intelligence Report.
The forecast for 2019 projects high escalation in Ontario (5-7%), British Columbia (6-8%), and Quebec (4-6%), with low to moderate escalation in Alberta (1-2%), Saskatchewan (2-3%), Manitoba (1-2%), and Atlantic Provinces (0-1%).
Overall, the outlook is for robust non-residential construction to lead strong growth despite continuing economic uncertainty over trade and tariffs, swings in oil prices, and a cooling residential sector due in part to a tighter lending environment and higher interest rates. Continued high immigration is expected to help maintain housing demand as both federal and provincial governments place increased focus on initiatives to build affordable housing, especially in Toronto and Vancouver.
“In the four decades BTY has been serving the property development and infrastructure industries, we have seen almost every possible market dynamic – as well as an equally unfailing ability for builders to adapt to continuous change,” says incoming Managing Director Toby Mallinder.
“The challenges before us now – creating more affordable housing, climate-change-resilient infrastructure and smart cities – will require innovation on an unprecedented scale.”
Given a projected overall economic growth forecast at about 2% and no dramatic reversals in ongoing trade and tariff negotiations, the overall industry outlook is positive. A province-by-province projection is noted below.
ONTARIO will see housing starts dip, but remain well above historic averages. Major transportation infrastructure projects will help anchor non-residential activity.
BRITISH COLUMBIA has multiple mega-projects in energy and transportation to sustain robust activity as the residential sector slows after years of expansion.
ALBERTA will see weather swings in oil production and prices sustain growth with infrastructure and industrial sectors leading in construction.
SASKATCHEWAN will see investment in energy and infrastructure projects offset moderation in residential, industrial and commercial sectors.
MANITOBA can expect large new industrial projects and investment in energy projects to balance moderation on the residential and commercial sectors.
QUEBEC will experience a surge of office and condo investment, strong demand for industrial and warehousing, and sustained infrastructure spending.
ATLANTIC PROVINCES. Prince Edward Island will lead the Atlantic Provinces in growth in 2018 and 2019, followed by Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Higher oil prices and potential LNG investment would provide a big lift.
BTY Group has been publishing its annual industry review of construction cost forecasts across Canada since 2003. Over the years, the Market Intelligence Report has earned a reputation in the development, property and finance communities for crucial insights on factors behind the changing marketplace and reliable unit rate cost projections for the coming year.
A full copy of the report can be accessed on our website at www.bty.com